Bitcoin Analysis: Week of Sep 28 (Wealth Management Pt. II)

In last week’s post we concluded with the following statement:
Our overall stance has been altered to Long-Term Bearish (though the downside is somewhat limited here), Intermediate-Term Bearish but Short-Term Bullish. We are looking for a potential bounce in prices back to the US$440-460 levels where the most likely outcome from there would be continued selling pressure.
More information was present in the conclusion, but because the primary case turned out exactly as predicted, there is no need to re-print it here. Of course the PayPal news came as complete surprise to everyone, including the Bitcoin news websites who were not even the first to the scene. Within hours after the news broke, the price rallied right into our expected resistance zone and topped out at around US$452. The news was definitely big enough to make the price break out to higher levels but it was not in the cards and in this report we will continue to analyze why the price is under continued downward pressure. As usual let’s take a quick look at the big picture.
The Long-Term views remains looking weak. This is now the 9th consecutive week where the high was not able to overtake a previous week’s high. One of the few positives to consider is that this pattern of weakness for 9 weeks is a good case for a momentum reversal indicator called TD (named after the creator Tom Demark). The indicator will eventually be covered in the Educational section, but those interested can read about it early. The overall look however, is still showing a high probability that we will re-test the yearly lows around US$350 and even have an outside chance of falling to April ’13 Bubble top of US$266.

This post was published at Coin Telegraph on 2014-09-28.