Yellen: “Our Brand Is Crisis”

With the Federal Reserve now indicating they are ‘really serious’ about ‘normalizing’ interest rates, read ‘tightening’ monetary policy, there have come numerous articles, and analysis, discussing the impact on asset prices. The general thesis is based on averages of historical tendencies suggesting equity bull markets never die simply of old age. They do, however, die of excessive Fed monetary restraint. As previously noted by David Rosenberg:
‘In the past six decades, the average length of time from the first tightening to the end of the business cycle is 44 months; the median is 35 months; and the lag from the initial rate hike to the end of the bull equity market is 38 months for the average, 40 months for the media.’
So, that analysis would suggest that since the Fed hiked in December of 2015, there is still at least two years left to the current business cycle. Right?
Maybe not.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Mar 9, 2017.