Bonds Haven’t Even Begun Pricing In ‘Trumpflation’ Yet

A simple model based on #inflation, #ISM and short-term rates suggests the 10-year US Treasury yield should be 4%! pic.twitter.com/FooVkNvQTt
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) November 12, 2016

Since the election the financial markets have been trying to price in ‘Trumpflation.’ This is the idea that the combination of infrastructure spending, tax cuts, rising deficits, immigration curbs and protectionist policies could reverse the disinflationary trends we have witnessed over the past few decades and more dramatically since the financial crisis. The selloff in the bond market amid surging interest rates might be the single most important piece of evidence in this regard.
Over the summer I noted we were likely witnessing the final blow-off stage of the bond bull market (see this and this). Since then the long bond has fallen nearly 15% leading many pundits to conclude it has already begun pricing in the prospect of Trumpflation. However, if you look at the data, it appears it’s just not pricing in as much deflation anymore. In fact, by some measures the yield 10-year treasury bond would still need to double in order to finish the job.

This post was published at Examiner on November 25, 2016.