Bitcoin, 2014: Down, Down, Down

The trend remains down.

Reminder: Washington Post article (Feb. 3, 2014): ‘These four charts suggest that Bitcoin will stabilize in the future’
Still, the longer the Bitcoin economy grows, the greater confidence users will have in its continued stability. And that has important implications for Bitcoin users. One is that volatility doesn’t strike at random. If you’re thinking about doing business in Bitcoins and you want to predict whether Bitcoin’s price is likely to fall tomorrow, you just need to look at what happened in the past couple of weeks. If prices were stable in the recent past, they’ll probably be stable in the near future too.
Second, when thinking about Bitcoin’s long-term future, it’s misleading to think about the average level of volatility in the past. That volatility mostly reflects the currency’s rapid growth, not something inherent in the technology. It’s mathematically impossible for Bitcoin’s rapid growth to continue forever. Once it slows, there’s good reason to think volatility will decline with it.

This post was published at Tea Party Economist on December 31, 2014.