Op-Ed: My Pair Trade – Long Bitcoin/Short Scotland

If Scotland votes to secede this should be extremely positive for Bitcoin.
In chaos theory, there is a famous metaphor called the butterfly effect: it states that small changes in one place in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.
What is a complex system? Essentially it is a collection of decision making objects (people), competing for limited resources armed with some kind of information about the past and present. According to Neal Johnson, author of Simply Complexity: a clear guide to complexity theory, there are 4 components which make up a complex system:
The system contains a collection of many interacting objects or agents that are linked by some public information that they may share (in this case separatism and financial destiny); Those objects behavior is affected by memory or feedback-something from the past affects something in the present. As a result, you are using information from the past to influence your decision in the future (feelings of resentment and blame from the financial crisis and subjugation to central rule without a voice); The objects can adapt their strategies according to their history. In other words, the agents can adapt behavior in the hopes of improving performance (Things were better before the Eurozone when we had our own currencies. Our economies were better off); The system is typically open. This system is influenced by its environment (Clearly this is the case as the economic effects of the crisis have destroyed countries).

This post was published at Coin Telegraph on 2014-09-17.